Optimism. Remember that?

According to various surveys, leaders were overflowing with it six months ago. A CEO survey conducted by Fortune and Deloitte shortly after the November elections found a surge in positive feelings about the economy in general and their own company’s good fortunes.

Now, not so much. The spring iteration of the Fortune/Deloitte survey [PDF], released May 15, found that optimism cratered between the polls: The proportion of CEOs optimistic about their firm’s performance dropped from 84 to 60 percent. Pessimism, meanwhile, has skyrocketed, from 18 percent to 58 percent. 

As the report puts it: “The level of uncertainty across the economic, geopolitical, and political landscape is a top challenge today, according to a majority of CEOs, and perhaps a key driver in the shift in outlook. As one CEO shares, ‘The biggest challenge I face today is the uncertainty related to the global economic landscape and the lack of sustained planning.’”

The first lesson to take from a swing like this is to remember that surveys like this are snapshots, not forecasts; they can explain why CEOs are feeling the way they do in the moment, but don’t in themselves suggest a path forward. 

If the challenges are a function of the political environment, what does effective advocacy look like now?

But the second lesson the association world can take from this is that members are in urgent need of guidance at stressful moments like this one. If cutbacks are in the offing, how can associations support professionals who are newly on the job market. If the challenges are a function of the political environment—and the report suggests it largely is—what does effective advocacy look like now?

Which speaks to a third lesson to take from the report: Leaders should plan, as they always should have, for resilience in the long term. On a practical level, the current moment means organizations will have to adjust their risk tolerance. Nearly a fourth of respondents (23 percent) said they were holding back on major new investments in the coming year. 

But that doesn’t mean organizations need to stick a pin in efforts to improve or innovate. Like a lot of people, I’m deeply skeptical of “AI will fix it” solutions, and aware that it’s not always the best or more efficient solution. Still, leaders are seeing value in it: According to the Fortune/Deloitte report, 62 percent of CEOs say that their AI initiatives have met or exceeded expectations in terms of delivering value. 

To dwell on AI, though, is to succumb to Next Shiny Object syndrome. One new technology won’t turn pessimism into optimism, just as you can’t cut your way to growth. An August 2024 report from PwC stressed the importance of integrating any short-term action around long-term goals. Unless those moves are part of “a sustainable growth strategy, they are only postponing crucial choices and storing up more troublesome issues for themselves further down the line.” Pessimism is natural, but solid leadership means ensuring you have a plan to avoid dwelling there.

[Andrii Yalanskyi/iStock]