Risk, Resilience, and How to Find Opportunity in Upheaval

Association leaders don’t need a reminder that the ground is shifting. From federal funding reversals and regulatory uncertainty to economic volatility and political polarization, the disruptions are relentless—and they’re not coming one at a time.

The question is no longer whether associations will continue to face upheaval. Instead, it’s whether they’re ready to navigate and lead through it. The answer lies not in being better able to predict what’s coming, but in being prepared to think open-mindedly, challenge long-held assumptions, and embrace the opportunities that change brings.

The Difference Between Risk and Uncertainty

RIMS CEO Gary A. LaBranche, FASAE, CAE, says the starting point for any association navigating turbulence is information—and lots of it. Effective risk management, he argues, is not about avoiding risk. It’s about making informed decisions in its presence.

“Risk is not necessarily a bad thing. In fact, no business can succeed without taking risks,” LaBranche says. “Making informed, strategic decisions about risk can open the door to new revenue streams, innovation, and market growth.”

Jeff De Cagna, AIMP DAIG FRSA FASAE FNI.Dir, executive advisor for Foresight First LLC, draws a critical distinction between risk and uncertainty. Risk, he says, is quantifiable—the known unknowns that boards can assign probability to and plan around. Uncertainty is something different: a persistent condition of the environment that grows and wanes but never disappears.

Associations are, he added, operating in a period of poly-crisis, where multiple disruptions are unfolding simultaneously across social, technological, economic, environmental, and political domains. Trying to eliminate uncertainty in that environment is a losing strategy. Instead, learning to work within it is the only viable option.

Building the Infrastructure to Act

LaBranche points to enterprise risk management, or ERM, as the framework associations should be adopting. Rather than treating risk as a compliance function, ERM embeds a culture of risk awareness throughout the association—at the staff, board, and committee levels—and surfaces how a risk in one area can cascade into another.

Scenario planning is a core tool within that framework. By convening cross-functional teams to work through “what if” conversations before a crisis hits, associations can build the muscle memory needed for rapid, coordinated response.

“Scenario planning exercises reinforce each individual employee’s responsibility to think about challenges—and solutions to those challenges—before they manifest,” LaBranche says.

De Cagna argues that governance structure alone isn’t the barrier. The deeper obstacle is organizational orthodoxy—the deep-seated assumptions association decision-makers hold about how things work, who they serve, and what success looks like. Those beliefs can become blinders when the environment shifts, preventing an association from seeing all the solutions or opportunities in front of them.

Boards, staff, committees, and task forces all need to participate in what he describes as a reckoning with orthodoxy. By questioning assumptions relentlessly and defining shared beliefs, the association can clearly define what it stands for.

Reframing Risk as Opportunity

Both LaBranche and De Cagna push back against the instinct to treat risk purely as a threat to be minimized. Managed thoughtfully, volatility can create openings for new revenue streams, new relationships, and new relevance.

LaBranche recommends starting with a complete financial picture of the association. With that foundation, leaders can make deliberate choices to diversify into credentialing or education programs, expand an event portfolio, or strategically lean into existing strengths. The key, he says, is intentionality—not reaction.

De Cagna frames the opportunity in terms of stakeholder reach. The membership-centric model—one that focuses exclusively on dues-paying members—leaves most of an association’s potential audience unserved. In a period of upheaval, those nonmembers are also feeling the pressure, and that creates a real opening.

“The solution in the current environment is not, ‘We’re going to take three years to shift our business model,’” De Cagna says. “It’s figuring out how you can assist stakeholders with whom you don’t have a current membership relationship because they too are experiencing the impact of the external environment.”

The short-term question, he says, is simple: Who are we not currently serving and what do we have to offer them? The longer-term question is how to build a value-centric business model capable of sustaining the association through whatever disruptions come next?

The Leaders Who Will Thrive

Neither LaBranche nor De Cagna promises the path ahead is easy. But both are clear that the associations best positioned to emerge stronger are those that have done the hard internal work of challenging their assumptions, building adaptive structures, and committing to continuous learning rather than fixed plans.

“Forward-thinking leaders who have proactively developed a plan for when and if a crisis occurs are better positioned to avoid it, mitigate its impacts, and recover faster,” LaBranche says.

In a world of poly-crisis, that readiness isn’t a luxury, it’s central to an association’s survival.